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before the match

China Open Final
Fernando Gonzalez V. Tommy Robredo Pre Game

No. 2 seed Fernando Gonzalez advanced to his first Asian ATP final on Saturday as he came back to defeat No. 4 seed Ivan Ljubicic of Croatia 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the China Open in Beijing.
The Chilean will attempt to capture his first ATP title in nearly two years since winning in Basel on Oct. 30, 2005. Since the title, Gonzalez has gone 0-5 in finals, including his first Grand Slam championship match at the Australian Open (l. to Federer) and at ATP Masters Series Rome (l. to Nadal) in May.
Gonzalez has won three three-set matches en route to the final

Gonzalez trailed 2-6, 0-2 on Saturday and fell behind a break at 3-4 in the third set before coming back to defeat Ljubicic.
Gonzalez will meet No. 3 seed Tommy Robredo Who also reached his third ATP final of the season with a 7-6(5), 7-5 victory over German wild card Nicolas Kiefer. This will be their fifth meeting (tied 2-2) with the Spaniard winning the last two meetings on clay ('03 Stuttgart, '04 Barcelona). In their only previous hard court match five years ago, Gonzalez won 6-2, 6-4, 6-4, in the second round at the Australian Open.
Both players are battling for two of the remaining five positions in the Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai. Gonzalez came into Beijing 11th in the ATP 2007 Race and he will move to 7th with a title and 8th by reaching the final. Robredo was 12th in the Race and he would move to tied for ninth place with countryman Carlos Moya if he wins and 11th by getting to the final.
The 25-year-old Robredo won his fifth career ATP title in Sopot (d. Acasuso) and finished runner-up in Auckland (l. to Ferrer) in January. He is looking to captured his first career hard court title in his 11th final (5-5).
All of gonzalez Matches in Beijing Went the distance for 3 sets and the Final is expected to to be No different. so the question remains whether Gonzy will have enough Fuel In the tank to finish? after he worked harder during the tournament the last meeting between the two was in 2004 so the head to head results can not tell too much Robredo is probbly a better clay player and on hard they are all most the same with a small edge to Gonzalez. When he plays his best game he is a better player and that is why he reached the austalian open final.

in my view Gonzalez is the better player capble of winning if he plays in top form on the other hand robredo will not make it ant easy on him as he is also a top 10 player with high ability.


In terms of odds none of the players should be backed below 2.0 I expect both of the players to reach above 2.0 during the match backing at less has no value.

Best entry into position point might be after the first set by laying the Player who won it and hoping for the opponet to take the next set. than back the same player again at higher odds with 100% profit or more for example If you layed roberdo at 1.37 after the first set you should back him later With all your profit on gonzalez at 1.74 to win 100% on the investment on Robredo and no loss on gonzalez.

on the other hand if you favor gonzalez You can cover the risk on roberto with half of your profit on gonzalez by Backing half the profit amount at 1.74 this should leave you with no risk on Robredo And also over 100% on the investment profit on Gonzalez.

Personly I favor Gonzalez and I if Robredo wins the first I will lay him.

Other value in this match might be backing Gonzalez during set 1 at odds above
2.0 later during the 2nd or 3rd set lower odds on gonazlez such as 1.6 and so
Will enable closing the position with 40-60% profit on the investment.

Good luck
RC

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